The U.S. soybean crop is expected to reach 3.205 billion bushels—up 149 million bushels from 2011—but an increase in global demand will net a drop in total U.S. supply, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
“When all is said and done, our ending stocks of soybeans will drop to just 145 million bushels,” said American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) Senior Economist Todd Davis. “That equates to a 4.4 percent stocks-to-use ratio, which is just over a two week supply of soybeans at the end of the year. That will tend to be a bullish factor and should keep soybeans positioned as the market driver.”
Soybean prices are expected to react to the lower supply levels. The 2012-2013 U.S. marketing year average price is estimated at $13 per bushel, compared to $12.35 per bushel record in 2012.